Saturday, October 18, 2014

African/Dallas Disease: Ramifications

Probably already occurred to you, if this disease manifests as a pandemic with its 70% death rate, nothing will be the same; not for a long while, if ever...

With some luck and great effort, perhaps the social utilities will remain up and functioning?  Would be a Great Blessing if so.  Perhaps refineries and pipeline delivery systems are automated to the degree that they can be kept functional with minimal man-power and attendance?  I don't know,   But I do know people who do.  Will try and find out.  Still, in the midst of pandemic, fuel for personal transport will be the least of worries.  Natural gas and propane though would still be in demand,

The sanitation services look most likely to be lost.  There is no means to incinerate sewage.  That, or some chemical treatment to destroy live virus which is spread through diarrhea and vomitus is just an unforeseen problem that requires solution Right Now; but there is none.   Burial or disposal of the dead is similarly a large concern.  Have seen some discussion on guidelines for funeral homes.  Bodies to be transported in 2 body bags, and loaded into a third before removal.  Not really a contingency though as the supply of bags must be finite and not like they are reusable...

Will residential electric, gas, & water services remain functional?  Really looks like it depends on depth of trained personnel and the inventory of commonly replaced equipment to allow for routine failure and breakage.  Will persons unable to work, businesses unable to function continue to have cash-flow?  Probably not.  How could they.  Huge #s of Americans out of work already, or working two or more jobs to bring-in what one decent occupation used to pay.   Most Americans unable to raise even one thousand dollars from their resources in 3 or 4 days in an emergency.

Even before this disease manifests in a numerically meaningful way there are going to be breakdowns.  Not in the basic societal mechanisms discussed above, but in the medical field as we have already seen this  week at Dallas Presbyterian Hospital, where of 90 surgeries scheduled for Thursday, only 3 patients came in for their procedures.  Article today about the hospital being a "ghost town".  If anything, this is a harbinger for the immediate future.  Doctors and nurses, other caregivers and administrators cannot be required to risk their lives in a facility unequipped and unprepared to cope with, much less deal directly with bio-level 4 hazards.  This will effect and affect all other healthcare delivery, especially "normal" and emergency care situations.

Just In Time Inventory systems which meant efficiently matched supply to demand are worthless in unprecedented demand situations.  Manufacturing stocks and raw materials take months if not longer to acquire under normal conditions.  How will their acquisition be slowed or not available during this pandemic?  Food and other Basics may very well be The New Wealth.  The old wealth came about in the latter part of the 1880s.  Stable population health, growth of cities,  growth of industrial capability to meet new and growing demand.....   All changes in a matter of months if/should/when this pandemic manifests and death rate cannot be stemmed.

JIT is your enemy.  Got money?  Probably won't be able to buy your way out of this situation.  Who will risk their life to enable your security if the money you can offer isn't buying what you and they expect?  You and your family need Food and The Basics.  You would likely also benefit strongly from other gear and supplies.  Time to get them is NOW before they are n/a, not available.

Wealth will revert from paper and paper-promises to actual physical goods, real property, and gear, supplies, and equipment.  Nice house in the suburbia or city high-rise condo will be give-aways.  Stocks and bonds will crap-out as force-majeur is declared.  Insurers have their "act of God"  and other "war clause" mechanisms which will deny claims.  Not like most don't rely on reinsurance anyway...  There are only a handful of reinsurance companies worldwide.  Most are already in some form of financial distress.  Article I saw this week, maybe last about how a number of medical insurers or plans will not pay the $1000/hr which was the number bandied about for Dallas Presbyterian's services to Mr. Duncan.

Ramifications.  Cause of Effect...  How they gonna affect you and yours?

At what point do credit card companies shutdown credit?  Got money in the bank?  You're okay, at least until your bank closes its doors.  But most Americans live on credit in some fashion.  Some pay their balances in full every month, but there are fewer of them as the last 7yrs have primarily seen layoffs and income reductions for those still employed.  Can you depend on your credit cards to provide the funding you need for your family's survival?  How long will they continue to function?  Real estate values are already way down.  You have your home and retirement accounts, maybe even a hefty brokerage account?  But you don't have any New Wealth...

As you deal with all this, you either consider the ramifications and take whatever prudent action you decide or you roll the dice that it is not going to affect you.  

FDR said, "Nothing in the political world happens by accident".  The failures of Government and Government Health Agencies to take prudent steps to prevent this disease from reaching our shores is beyond treasonous and criminal.  Perhaps it is welcomed as the means to crash the system, which was already ruined and looted financially beyond any hope of restoration or renewal?  What better scapegoat to cover the tracks of deliberate betrayal than a medical devastation that seemingly no one could have prevented?  Except it could have been prevented, and could still be prevented from further manifestation and dispersal.  The inane stupidity employed by Those Entrusted With Public Health Guardianship is so broad and witless as to be impossible to confuse with professional error or accident.  So, we conclude this is the plan, the goal.  Prince Phillip gets his wish without having to even drop dead first!  (Might want to review his remarks about desiring to be reincarnated as a virus to reduce the world's population.)

Lots more depth to this subject than I can come up with off the top of my head.  Yet, what matters is you and your family.  Only you can take action for your own.  If you have resources, deploying them now may mean the continuation of your line.  Many fine families did not come through the plague years.  Might read Albert Camus  Journal of The Plague Years and The Stranger to get an idea of the daily physical and spiritual stresses.  "Mother died today; or was it yesterday?"  Dear God!  Consider that sentence and the impact of stress to create such disconnect.  Camus, the essential existentialist had his own agenda, but the real essence is there.  Like the daily lives of the physicians in the Doctors Without Borders treatment camps.  Read Richard Preston's The Hot Zone, if only to see how ebola-Zaire has morphed into maybe several contagions in the past year...

All the time you spend "deciding", there are others who are already decided.  There are those who control our societal fabric and they have already decided.  You are on your own, whether you recognize this or not.  Ramifications...  They just keep happening.  Every right decision takes you further, every wrong decision may hold you back.   You do the best you can and try to stay flexible. You concentrate on the basics and as you come across other ancillary opportunities you grab them if you can.  Like in Poker, you have to stay in the game to see the hand through.  Even if money is tight, you can find a way...  If you can put your Trust Fully In God; tell HIM so.  HE Will Make your way when you are unable to do so.  Such has been our experience.

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